Understand the Game Breakdown: Angels vs Rockies Head-to-Head Insights September 19th, 2025

Los Angeles Angels

@

Colorado Rockies

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to face off against the Los Angeles Angels on September 19, 2025, this matchup holds significant intrigue despite both teams struggling this season. The Rockies sit at 41-112, while the Angels are slightly better at 69-84, and both squads have been well out of contention for their respective divisions.

In their previous game, the Rockies showcased a glimmer of hope, but the overall narrative for the season remains bleak for them. They rank as the 27th best offense in MLB and are particularly weak in terms of batting average, sitting at 24th among all teams. The Rockies will send Bradley Blalock to the mound, who holds a dismal 1-5 record and a staggering ERA of 9.00. His low strikeout percentage of 9.4 K% could play into the hands of an Angels offense that has the highest strikeout rate in MLB. However, with Blalock’s xFIP of 5.77 suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky this year, there may be a hint of optimism.

Mitch Farris, the Angels’ left-handed starter, has also struggled, posting a 1-1 record with an ERA of 4.80. His tendency to walk batters (11.1 BB%) could be exploited by the Rockies, who rank first in MLB for the least walks drawn. Both pitchers project to allow around 3.6-3.7 earned runs, indicating a likely high-scoring game.

The Rockies have a high implied team total of 5.79 runs, while the Angels are projected at 6.21 runs. Betting markets suggest a close contest, with the Rockies at +105 on the moneyline, providing value as they look to capitalize on their strengths against the Angels’ weaknesses. As fans anticipate this matchup, all eyes will be on whether the Rockies can find a way to rally behind their underperforming starter.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Mitch Farris – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Out of all SPs, Mitch Farris’s fastball velocity of 89.8 mph is in the 10th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Schanuel has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Los Angeles Angels offense projects for the most runs on the slate, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Bradley Blalock – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  Bradley Blalock has tallied 14.1 outs per GS this year, checking in at the 8th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+160/-210)
  As it relates to his batting average, Hunter Goodman has experienced some positive variance this year. His .279 mark has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .223.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Colorado Rockies have 5 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ryan Ritter, Hunter Goodman, Brenton Doyle, Ezequiel Tovar, Mickey Moniak).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 87 of their last 151 games (+13.42 Units / 8% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 3.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 55 of their last 93 games (+14.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• Mike Trout – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Mike Trout has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+5.35 Units / 21% ROI)