Baltimore Orioles
Chicago White Sox
(-105/-115)+105
The Chicago White Sox will host the Baltimore Orioles on September 17, 2025, at Guaranteed Rate Field for the third game of their series. The White Sox, struggling this season with a record of 57-95, recently fell to the Orioles by a score of 8-7. Meanwhile, the Orioles sit at 71-80, reflecting a below-average season as they look to secure wins in the final stretch.
On the mound, the White Sox are projected to start Martin Perez. Although he has a solid 3.27 ERA this season, his peripheral stats indicate he may have been a bit lucky, as evidenced by his 4.83 xFIP. Perez’s low strikeout rate (20.0 K%) could be a concern against an Orioles lineup that ranks 4th in MLB for strikeouts. However, his high walk rate (9.5 BB%) may not be as detrimental today since Baltimore’s offense walks the 5th least in MLB.
Facing Perez will be Tyler Wells, who has posted an impressive 2.31 ERA this season. Wells is projected to allow 2.3 earned runs, making him a favorable option for the Orioles. Despite his excellent stats, his xFIP of 3.93 suggests he might face tougher times ahead.
Offensively, the White Sox rank 28th in MLB, indicating significant struggles at the plate. In contrast, the Orioles rank 20th overall, but they have shown more pop, ranking 13th in home runs. Given that the White Sox have a good bullpen (7th in MLB), they might have the edge late in the game if they can keep it close early on.
The game total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting a competitive matchup. With the Orioles favored at -125, this game could be tightly contested, particularly if the White Sox find ways to capitalize on their pitching advantage.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Tyler Wells – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)Tyler Wells’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (65.4% since the start of last season) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Jeremiah Jackson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)In terms of his batting average, Jeremiah Jackson has been very fortunate this year. His .290 rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .228.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Tyler O’Neill pulls many of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 5th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)In his previous game started, Martin Perez was on point and conceded 0 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Mike Tauchman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Mike Tauchman has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 6.7% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the past two weeks.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- The Chicago White Sox have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Colson Montgomery, Michael A. Taylor, Will Robertson).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-140)The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 67 games at home (+16.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 78 of their last 129 games (+23.28 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)Jackson Holliday has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.30 Units / 44% ROI)