Player Predictions Overview for Rangers vs Mets – 9/14/2025

Texas Rangers

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New York Mets

As the New York Mets prepare to face the Texas Rangers on September 14, 2025, at Citi Field, they find themselves in a critical stretch of the season. The Mets, sitting at 76-73, are looking to gain ground as they remain in contention for a Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, the Rangers, with a record of 79-70, are enjoying an above-average season but are not in a position to rest on their laurels.

In their previous matchup, the Mets showcased their offensive prowess, defeating the Rangers decisively. Looking ahead, the Mets will send Nolan McLean to the mound, who has been a bright spot in their rotation with a 4-1 record and an impressive ERA of 1.42. Despite being ranked as the 62nd best starting pitcher in MLB, projections suggest he may have been lucky thus far, as his xFIP of 2.97 indicates he could regress.

On the other side, the Rangers will counter with Jake Latz, who has struggled this season, evidenced by his low ranking among pitchers. His ERA of 2.91 is solid, but his xFIP of 4.37 suggests he may not be able to maintain that level of performance. Latz’s high walk rate (10.6 BB%) could pose an advantage for the Mets, who rank 3rd in MLB in drawing walks.

Offensively, the Mets rank 6th in MLB, boasting a powerful lineup that includes a solid home run count. In contrast, the Rangers’ offense ranks 25th, struggling to generate consistent runs. With the Mets favored at -165, their projected team total of 4.46 runs reflects confidence in their ability to capitalize on Latz’s weaknesses. This matchup sets the stage for an intriguing game where the Mets look to build on their recent success and capitalize on their home-field advantage.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – Moneyline (+150)
  Out of all the teams in action today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Texas Rangers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Kyle Higashioka – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Extreme flyball batters like Kyle Higashioka usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Nolan McLean.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Texas Rangers have hit 30.3% of their balls in the air 100 mph or harder this year, putting them as the #22 team in the league by this metric.
  Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

New York Mets Insights

• Nolan McLean – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Recording 19 outs per game per started this year on average, Nolan McLean places him the 99th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
  Starling Marte has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (64% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 47 games at home (+13.20 Units / 23% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 66 games (+14.70 Units / 19% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-130/+100)
  Juan Soto has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.10 Units / 22% ROI)