Review Player Predictions Overview for Orioles vs Blue Jays – Sunday September 14, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays host the Baltimore Orioles on September 14, 2025, fans are eager to see how this pivotal matchup unfolds. With the Blue Jays sitting comfortably in the playoff race at 86-62, their push for postseason glory continues. Meanwhile, the Orioles, at 69-79, have struggled throughout the season and are looking to play spoiler.

In their previous game, the Blue Jays secured a win against the Orioles, which adds to the momentum they hope to carry into this contest. They’ll be counting on their ace, Shane Bieber, to maintain that momentum. Bieber, ranked as the 33rd best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has a solid record of 2-1 this season with an average ERA of 4.30. However, his 2.76 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky, suggesting room for improvement.

The Orioles will counter with Albert Suarez, who is yet to make a start this season but boasts a stellar 2-0 record and a remarkable 2.08 ERA. However, his 4.63 xFIP indicates he may not sustain this level of performance. Facing a high-strikeout offense from the Blue Jays, Suarez’s low strikeout rate (15.6 K%) could prove problematic.

Offensively, the Blue Jays are thriving, ranking 2nd in MLB, supported by an impressive lineup that leads the league with a .284 batting average. In contrast, the Orioles find themselves at 21st in MLB, struggling to find consistency. This disparity could play a significant role as the Blue Jays are projected to score 4.85 runs, while the Orioles sit at a mere 3.65.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Albert Suarez – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)
  Albert Suarez’s 95-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 76th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Coby Mayo has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.1-mph dropping to 74.8-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Jackson Holliday hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Shane Bieber – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)
  Shane Bieber has recorded 17.5 outs per game per started since the start of last season, ranking in the 95th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Joey Loperfido – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Despite posting a .387 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Joey Loperfido has experienced some positive variance given the .098 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .289.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• The Toronto Blue Jays have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.5 (+105)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 84 of their last 146 games (+20.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 126 games (+24.48 Units / 18% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+140/-185)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+10.45 Units / 42% ROI)