Match Preview: Reds vs Athletics Game Forecast and Analysis – Saturday, September 13, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Athletics

The Oakland Athletics face off against the Cincinnati Reds in the second game of their series on September 13, 2025. In their previous matchup, the Athletics shut out the Reds 3-0, showcasing their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities against a struggling team. Oakland sits at 68-80 this season, reflecting a below-average performance, while Cincinnati stands at 74-73, maintaining an average record.

Luis Severino is projected to start for the Athletics, boasting a Win/Loss record of 6-11 and an ERA of 4.67 this year. Despite being ranked as the 158th best starting pitcher in MLB, Severino’s advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, with a FIP of 4.10, indicating potential for better outcomes. However, he has struggled with walks, projected to allow an average of 1.8 tonight, which could be problematic against an offense like Cincinnati’s.

On the other hand, Hunter Greene is slated to pitch for the Reds. Greene has a solid Win/Loss record of 6-4, with an impressive ERA of 2.59 and a ranking as the 18th best starter in MLB. His strikeout rate is projected to be high tonight at 7.0, reinforcing his effectiveness on the mound. Yet, he faces a potent Athletics lineup that ranks 4th in MLB for home runs, with 204 long balls this season.

With the Game Total set at a lofty 9.0 runs, betting markets suggest a close contest, with the Athletics’ moneyline at +100 and a high implied total of 4.39 runs. Despite their struggles this season, Oakland’s powerful offense, combined with Severino’s ability to potentially outplay his current form, may keep this game more competitive than expected.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Hunter Greene – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Because flyball hitters face a disadvantage against flyball pitchers, Hunter Greene (41.4% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 2 FB hitters in the opposing team’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Noelvi Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-250)
  Noelvi Marte has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (59% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Will Benson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Will Benson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Athletics Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Luis Severino has utilized his secondary offerings 11.4% more often this season (51.1%) than he did last season (39.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Carlos Cortes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Carlos Cortes has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• It may be smart to expect weaker performance for the Athletics offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 9th-luckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Moneyline (+100)
  The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 65 games (+10.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 79 of their last 133 games (+26.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105/-135)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.30 Units / 59% ROI)