Discover the Betting Trends for Rays vs Cubs Game – Saturday, September 13, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to face the Tampa Bay Rays on September 13, 2025, both teams are looking to capitalize on their recent performances. The Cubs are having a solid season with an 84-63 record, while the Rays sit at a middling 72-75. In their last matchup, the Cubs secured a victory, edging out the Rays 6-4, which adds to the pressure for Tampa Bay as they look to even the series.

On the mound, the Cubs are projected to start Colin Rea, who has had a challenging year with a 10-6 record and a 4.20 ERA. While Rea has started 26 games this season, his underlying stats suggest he may be due for a regression, as his 4.91 xERA indicates he has been somewhat fortunate. In contrast, Drew Rasmussen of the Rays has been exceptional, boasting a 2.64 ERA and ranking as the 19th best starting pitcher in MLB. Rasmussen’s recent start on September 7 saw him pitch five scoreless innings, which highlights his ability to dominate opposing lineups.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 9th in MLB, showcasing their ability to generate runs. Their best hitter has been on a tear recently, posting a .435 batting average over the last week. Meanwhile, the Rays’ offense has been average, ranking 14th overall, but they do excel in stolen bases, leading the league in that category.

With both teams vying for a win, this matchup promises to be competitive. The Cubs’ strong offensive showing and the pitching prowess of Rasmussen give them an edge, despite the betting markets indicating a close contest. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, suggesting a potentially high-scoring affair. As the Cubs aim to build on their recent success, they will look to exploit any weaknesses in the Rays’ lineup.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Drew Rasmussen has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 58.5% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Yandy Diaz has been very fortunate when it comes to his home runs this year; his 23.1 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is inflated compared to his 14.5 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.6%) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Colin Rea – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Colin Rea’s 2195-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 12th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Nico Hoerner is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• It may be smart to expect weaker performance for the Chicago Cubs offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 8th-luckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 63 games at home (+15.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 131 games (+13.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+6.10 Units / 61% ROI)