Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
(-110/-110)+115
As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face the Milwaukee Brewers on September 7, 2025, at PNC Park, the stakes are clear. The Brewers enter the contest riding high from a recent victory over the Pirates, winning their last matchup 4-1. Currently, the Brewers are in contention for a playoff spot with a strong record of 88-55, while the Pirates sit at a disappointing 64-79.
The pitching matchup features Bubba Chandler for the Pirates, who has had a bit of an unusual season. Despite a solid ERA of 2.25, advanced statistics suggest he may not maintain this level of success. His 3.67 xFIP indicates he’s been fortunate, and he only projects to pitch an average of 4.8 innings today, which is below par. Additionally, Chandler’s tendency to allow 4.6 hits and 1.8 walks per game could pose problems against a patient Brewers lineup that ranks 10th in MLB offense.
On the other side, Jacob Misiorowski takes the mound for the Brewers. His season has been more stable, with a respectable ERA of 4.50 and a favorable 3.11 xFIP that suggests he could improve. Misiorowski projects to allow just 1.9 earned runs today, and despite averaging 4.3 innings, his ability to limit damage makes him a reliable option.
The Pirates offense has struggled throughout the season, ranking 29th in MLB and particularly lacking in power with a 30th ranking in home runs. With their best hitter producing only mediocre numbers, they may find it challenging to put runs on the board against a potent Brewers bullpen, ranked 3rd in MLB.
With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, the Brewers are favored to win this matchup, yet the Pirates have the potential to surprise, especially if Chandler can outpitch expectations.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Jacob Misiorowski – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Jacob Misiorowski’s high utilization percentage of his fastball (54.8% this year) is likely weakening his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
- Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Bauers stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in future gamesExplain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Ji-wan Bae – Over/Under HitsJi Hwan Bae is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of Milwaukee (#2-best of all teams on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Pittsburgh’s 89.1-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in MLB: #21 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 85 of their last 141 games (+23.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-135)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 100 games (+31.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+155/-200)Bryan Reynolds has hit the Walks Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+7.25 Units / 121% ROI)