Explore Cardinals vs D-Backs Expert Picks and Betting Tips – 7/18/26

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Arizona Diamondbacks

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Dustin May – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Throwing 91.8 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Dustin May checks in at the 78th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Ivan Herrera’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.1% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Today, Lars Nootbaar is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 41.1% rate (100th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Brandon Pfaadt has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.1% more often this season (58.3%) than he did last year (53.2%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Max Kepler can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• It may be best to expect stronger performance for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 6th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-115)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 43% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 away games (+7.45 Units / 43% ROI)
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1200/-6000)
  Masyn Winn has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 away games (+11.00 Units / 138% ROI)