Explore Cardinals vs D-Backs Expert Picks and Betting Tips - 7/18/26

+100O/U: 9
(-110/-110)-120

Dustin May – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
Throwing 92.7 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Dustin May checks in at the 83rd percentile.
Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Ivan Herrera’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.1% down to 0%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
Today, Lars Nootbaar is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.9% rate (100th percentile).
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Brandon Pfaadt has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.1% more often this season (58.3%) than he did last year (53.2%).
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Max Kepler – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Max Kepler can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
The Arizona Diamondbacks (18.3 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy team of hitters of all teams on the slate today.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-120)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 43% ROI)
St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 away games (+7.45 Units / 43% ROI)
Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
Ivan Herrera has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.65 Units / 31% ROI)

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