Uncover the Game Forecast: Giants vs Mariners Match Preview - 7/18/26

+140O/U: 7
(-110/-110)-160

Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
Out of all SPs, Logan Webb’s fastball spin rate of 2086 rpm is in the 11th percentile this year.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
Willy Adames has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (61% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
The San Francisco Giants have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Bryce Eldridge, Daniel Susac, Willy Adames).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Bryan Woo – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+150/-195)
Bryan Woo has averaged 17.4 outs per outing this year, grading out in the 85th percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Dominic Canzone – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
Dominic Canzone has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.6-mph average to last year’s 94.1-mph EV.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Seattle Mariners hitters collectively grade out 8th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 92.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.70 Units / 30% ROI)
San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-155/+120)
The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.35 Units / 22% ROI)
Jung Hoo Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+210/-285)
Jung Hoo Lee has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+12.49 Units / 60% ROI)

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