Orioles vs Astros Picks and Betting Tips - July 18th, 2026

-110O/U: 9
(-105/-115)-110

Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
Among all starting pitchers, Trevor Rogers’s fastball spin rate of 2462 rpm is in the 84th percentile this year.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
Despite posting a .298 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Gunnar Henderson has had some very poor luck given the .051 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .349.
Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Spencer Arrighetti – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Spencer Arrighetti is expected to post an average of 6 strikeouts in this matchup.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
In the past week’s worth of games, Yordan Alvarez’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 18.7% down to 0%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (46.6% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+4.60 Units / 28% ROI)
Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.0 (+120)
The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 50 games (+4.85 Units / 8% ROI)
Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+115/-150)
Pete Alonso has hit the Walks Over in 6 of his last 9 away games (+6.40 Units / 71% ROI)

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