Los Angeles Dodgers
Baltimore Orioles
(-105/-115)+125
The Baltimore Orioles will host the Los Angeles Dodgers in a pivotal Interleague matchup on September 6, 2025, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles, with a record of 65-76, are having a below-average season and currently sit in last place in the American League East. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are enjoying a strong campaign with a record of 78-63, placing them in playoff contention as they fight for a better seeding in the National League.
The two teams faced each other yesterday, with the Orioles edging out the Dodgers 2-1, a result that speaks to the Orioles’ ability to surprise despite their overall struggles. Trevor Rogers, projected to start for Baltimore, has been solid this season, boasting an impressive 8-2 record and an excellent ERA of 1.39. However, his 3.49 xFIP indicates that he might have benefitted from some luck, and he is up against one of the toughest offenses in baseball.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, projected to pitch for Los Angeles, ranks as the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB according to Power Rankings. With an ERA of 2.82 and recent performances showing his prowess, including a strong outing where he went 7 innings with 1 earned run and 10 strikeouts, he presents a serious challenge for the Orioles.
While the Dodgers’ offense is ranked 3rd best overall and 2nd in home runs, Baltimore’s lineup is only 17th overall and has struggled with consistency. The projections suggest that the Orioles may underperform with a low team total of 3.44 runs, which could spell trouble against a potent Dodgers squad that averages 4.06 runs.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Among all SPs, Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s fastball spin rate of 2194 rpm ranks in the 11th percentile this year.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Enrique Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)Enrique Hernandez has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 9.9% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past week.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Compared to their .344 overall projected rate, the .330 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Los Angeles Dodgers projected offense in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup significantly weaker than usual.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Trevor Rogers – Over/Under Pitching OutsGenerating 19.4 outs per outing this year on average, Trevor Rogers checks in at the 99th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Coby Mayo has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.3-mph to 96.7-mph over the past 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Baltimore Orioles – 2H MoneylineThe Baltimore Orioles bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 72 of their last 120 games (+20.58 Units / 16% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 65 games (+11.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- Andy Pages – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Andy Pages has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.55 Units / 40% ROI)