Find the Official Lineup for Blue Jays vs Reds – 9/03/2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on September 3, 2025, they find themselves in a challenging position. The Reds currently sit at 70-69, having lost to the Blue Jays in a high-scoring affair yesterday, 12-9. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are soaring with an 80-59 record, showcasing their strength as one of the top teams in baseball.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Zack Littell for the Reds and Shane Bieber for the Blue Jays. Littell, ranked 137th among MLB starters, has had an average season with a Win/Loss record of 9-8 and a commendable ERA of 3.63. However, his xFIP of 4.33 suggests he may have been fortunate, indicating potential struggles ahead. Littell projects to pitch 5.3 innings while allowing 3.2 earned runs, which could prove problematic against a potent Blue Jays lineup.

Conversely, Shane Bieber, currently ranked 32nd among MLB starters, brings a stellar 2.38 ERA into this game. With a record of 1-1 and a solid projection of 5.5 innings pitched, he is expected to allow just 2.5 earned runs. The projections suggest that Bieber could be poised for an even better outing, given his favorable xFIP of 1.69.

The Reds’ offense ranks 16th overall but struggles with power, placing 24th in home runs. In contrast, the Blue Jays boast one of the best offenses in the league, ranking 2nd overall and leading in batting average. With the Reds’ bullpen ranked 23rd and the Blue Jays’ bullpen at 7th, the latter’s depth could be a decisive factor in this game.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Shane Bieber – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  With 6 bats who share his hand in the opposing team’s projected offense, Shane Bieber should benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  In terms of his home runs, Daulton Varsho has been very fortunate this year. His 53.4 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 39.9.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Bo Bichette – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Bo Bichette has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Among all starting pitchers, Zack Littell’s fastball spin rate of 2009 rpm is in the 8th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Matt McLain is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Cincinnati Reds have done a good job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 16.2° mark is among the highest in Major League Baseball this year (#3 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 66 of their last 111 games (+22.15 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 71 of their last 121 games (+22.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  TJ Friedl has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.10 Units / 28% ROI)