Read the Prediction and Game Breakdown for Orioles vs Giants Match Sunday, August 31st, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

@

San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants host the Baltimore Orioles at Oracle Park on August 31, 2025, in a matchup that sees both teams struggling for consistency this season. The Giants, sitting at 67-69, have an average record, while the Orioles, with a disappointing 61-75, have faced challenges all year. In their last game, the Giants were trounced by the Orioles, suffering a heavy 11-1 defeat, marking a particularly rough outing for their pitching staff.

Justin Verlander takes the mound for San Francisco, looking to improve on his 2-10 record this season. Although ranked 106th among starting pitchers, he showed potential in his last start, allowing only 2 earned runs over 6 innings. His 4.47 ERA is considered average, but a 3.81 FIP indicates he has been slightly unlucky this season. Verlander projects to pitch around 5.5 innings today, although he’ll need to cut down on the 1.5 walks he allows on average if he wants to find success against Baltimore.

For the Orioles, Tomoyuki Sugano, who has a better record at 10-6, will take the ball. However, he has faced his share of difficulties as well, with an ERA of 4.06 this season that belies his potential luck, indicated by a higher 4.70 xFIP. Sugano’s projections suggest he may surrender over 3 earned runs on average today, placing pressure on a struggling bullpen ranked 28th in the league.

Given the Giants’ current standing as betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, they hold a high implied team total of 4.54 runs. With the Giants’ offense ranking 25th overall, they’ll rely heavily on Verlander’s performance to secure a victory against a mediocre Orioles lineup that ranks 19th in overall offensive power. This series offers a crucial opportunity for the Giants to bounce back and seek redemption after their last performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tomoyuki Sugano to throw 85 pitches in this matchup (8th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Ryan Mountcastle has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.7-mph to 97-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Justin Verlander – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Justin Verlander’s slider usage has jumped by 10.8% from last season to this one (19.3% to 30.1%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Patrick Bailey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Patrick Bailey has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs this year; his 3.3 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is deflated compared to his 11.8 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Heliot Ramos has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 56 games at home (+12.20 Units / 19% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 69 of their last 119 games (+16.48 Units / 13% ROI)
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-140/+110)
  Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 away games (+4.10 Units / 81% ROI)