Find Out How to Watch Padres vs Twins – Friday, August 29th, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Minnesota Twins

On August 29, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the San Diego Padres at Target Field in what marks the first game of their interleague series. The Twins, with a record of 60-73, are experiencing a disappointing season, while the Padres are faring considerably better at 75-59. The Padres’ recent performances have shown notable consistency, especially as they aim to secure a Wild Card spot.

Zebby Matthews is slated to take the mound for the Twins. Despite being ranked as the 62nd best starting pitcher in MLB, Matthews has had a mixed season, posting a 3-4 record with an ERA of 5.30. The projections suggest that he may be due for a turnaround, as his xFIP of 3.37 indicates he has been a bit unlucky this year. However, he faces a significant challenge in the Padres’ lineup, which has displayed a high batting average of .438 from their best hitter over the last week.

The Padres will counter with Nestor Cortes, who has been performing at an average level with a 4.66 ERA. Cortes is expected to pitch around 5.3 innings today, and while he hasn’t dominated, he has the advantage of a solid bullpen backing him up, ranked 1st in MLB, compared to the Twins’ struggling 30th-ranked bullpen.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, and the Twins having an average implied team total of 4.05 runs—slightly less than the Padres’ projected 4.45 runs—the odds seem to favor San Diego. Nonetheless, this matchup highlights Matthews’ potential, especially against a Padres offense that ranks poorly in home runs. Betting markets see this matchup as competitive, but the Padres may very well capitalize on their current momentum.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Nestor Cortes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Over his last 3 games started, Nestor Cortes has experienced a big jump in his fastball spin rate: from 2248 rpm over the whole season to 2309 rpm of late.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ramon Laureano’s true offensive talent to be a .332, indicating that he has been very fortunate this year given the .053 deviation between that figure and his actual .385 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Zebby Matthews – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-150)
  Zebby Matthews has tallied 14.4 outs per game per started this year, ranking in the 12th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Brooks Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Brooks Lee is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Kody Clemens hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 51 games (+11.65 Units / 19% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 93 games (+12.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Kody Clemens has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 10 games at home (+7.05 Units / 70% ROI)