Get the Cardinals vs Reds Injury Report – Friday, August 29, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to face the St. Louis Cardinals on August 29, 2025, at Great American Ball Park, both teams find themselves in the midst of an average season. The Reds currently sit at 68-66, while the Cardinals are slightly behind at 66-69. This matchup marks the first game of a series between these two National League Central rivals, and both teams are looking to gain momentum.

In their most recent game, the Reds managed to secure a close victory, which could provide a boost as they look to build on that success. Cincinnati will send Zack Littell to the mound, who has had a decent season with a Win/Loss record of 9-8 and a solid ERA of 3.62. However, his 4.28 xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate this year. Littell projects to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, with an average of 4.4 strikeouts.

On the other side, St. Louis will counter with Matthew Liberatore, who has struggled this season with a 6-11 record and a 4.27 ERA. His projections indicate he will likely pitch about 5.1 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs. Both pitchers are below average according to advanced metrics, and this game could hinge on which offense can capitalize on the opposing pitcher’s weaknesses.

Cincinnati’s offense ranks 21st overall in MLB, while St. Louis is slightly worse at 22nd. The Reds will need their best hitters to step up, especially considering their high implied team total of 4.71 runs for the game. With betting markets indicating a close contest, the Reds may have the edge if Littell can maintain his form and the offense can produce against Liberatore.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 15.0 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matthew Liberatore to throw 84 pitches in this game (9th-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Jordan Walker has been unlucky this year, putting up a .272 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .311 — a .039 deviation.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have 5 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jordan Walker, Thomas Saggese, Nolan Gorman, Willson Contreras, Pedro Pages).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Zack Littell’s slider usage has dropped by 5.8% from last year to this one (39.9% to 34.1%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Noelvi Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+195)
  Noelvi Marte is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The 7% Barrel% of the Cincinnati Reds makes them the #28 group of hitters in MLB this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 75 of their last 127 games (+24.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 47 of their last 79 games (+10.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• Noelvi Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+195)
  Noelvi Marte has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+11.90 Units / 33% ROI)