Read the Prediction and Game Breakdown for Marlins vs Mets Match Thursday, August 28th, 2025

Miami Marlins

@

New York Mets

The New York Mets will host the Miami Marlins for the first game of their series on August 28, 2025, at Citi Field. The Mets enter this matchup with a solid record of 72-61, showcasing an above-average season as they battle for positioning in the National League East. Meanwhile, the Marlins sit at 62-71, struggling with a below-average season and seeking to regain some momentum.

In their last outings, the Mets came off an impressive 6-0 victory while the Marlins were on the wrong end of a crushing 12-1 defeat. This sets a stark contrast in the momentum both teams bring into this game, especially as Clay Holmes takes the mound for New York. Holmes, currently ranked 51st among MLB starters according to advanced stats, has been effective this year with an 11-6 record and a 3.60 ERA. However, his 4.17 xFIP indicates he might have benefited from some good luck along the way, suggesting potential regression. Notably, his recent start on August 23 was strong, as he pitched 6 innings with only 2 earned runs.

On the other hand, Adam Mazur is set to start for the Marlins. With a record of 0-1 and a dismal 6.35 ERA in his limited action this year, Mazur faces a daunting challenge. Although he has shown flashes of potential with a 5.63 xFIP suggesting some bad luck, his struggles against an aggressive Mets lineup, which ranks 7th overall in offense, do not bode well.

The Mets are significant favorites with a moneyline of -245 and an implied team total of 5.15 runs, while the Marlins, projected to score only 3.35 runs, will need to find a way to capitalize on any weaknesses from Holmes, particularly in drawing walks against his high-walk rate. As the season progresses, this matchup could further highlight the disparities between teams vying for better positioning and those still searching for answers.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Adam Mazur – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  The New York Mets have 6 hitters in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage over Adam Mazur in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jakob Marsee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Jakob Marsee has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (50% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-235)
  In his last GS, Clay Holmes was in good form and allowed 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Brandon Nimmo is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 44 games at home (+11.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+220)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 41 away games (+13.20 Units / 32% ROI)
• Jakob Marsee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Jakob Marsee has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.70 Units / 25% ROI)