Read the Game Recap for D-Backs vs Brewers – August 28th, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Milwaukee Brewers

On August 28, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at American Family Field for the fourth game of their series. The Brewers are enjoying a strong season with an impressive record of 83-51, while the Diamondbacks sit at a more average 65-69. Just a day ago, Milwaukee faced a setback, losing to Arizona 3-2, a result that could fuel their motivation to bounce back at home.

Jose Quintana is slated to take the mound for the Brewers. Despite ranking 219th among starting pitchers in MLB—indicating he has struggled relative to his peers—he boasts a solid Win/Loss record of 10-4 and an ERA of 3.32 this season. The projections suggest he will pitch 5.5 innings, likely allowing around 2.8 earned runs. However, Quintana’s high xFIP of 4.78 indicates that he may not maintain his current level of performance.

Opposing him is Nabil Crismatt, who has had a rocky start to his season with only two appearances and a record of 1-0. He holds an impressive ERA of 1.00 but also has a troubling xFIP of 3.31, suggesting he could face challenges going forward. Interestingly, Crismatt is a high-walk pitcher, which could play into the hands of a Brewers offense that ranks 5th in MLB for drawing walks.

The Brewers rank 2nd in team batting average this season, indicating a potent offensive capability. Meanwhile, Arizona ranks 4th in overall team offense, making this matchup intriguing. With both teams showcasing offensive talent, the game total sitting at an elevated 9.0 runs may be worth monitoring. Given the Brewers’ strong home performance and the struggles of Crismatt, they are positioned as betting favorites with a moneyline of -160. Expect fireworks as these two teams clash in what promises to be an exciting game.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Nabil Crismatt – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Nabil Crismatt has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 8.8 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-210/+160)
  Despite posting a .370 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Geraldo Perdomo has had some very good luck given the .056 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .314.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Arizona Diamondbacks today carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .319, which is considerably worse than their actual wOBA of .330 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Jose Quintana has utilized his sinker 13.4% more often this year (43.8%) than he did last season (30.4%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Caleb Durbin – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Caleb Durbin has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (90% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Milwaukee Brewers batters as a unit grade out 30th- in MLB for power this year when assessing with their 6.6% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-155)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 80 games (+30.75 Units / 28% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 52 of their last 97 games (+10.95 Units / 8% ROI)
• Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+12.45 Units / 68% ROI)