San Diego Padres
Seattle Mariners
(-110/-110)-150
On August 27, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the San Diego Padres at T-Mobile Park for the third game of their series. The Mariners hold a record of 71-62 this season, while the Padres are currently 75-58. Both teams are in contention, but the Mariners are looking to bounce back after a narrow loss to the Padres by a score of 7-6 in their last matchup.
The matchup features Mariners’ pitcher Bryan Woo, who is having an elite season with a 2.94 ERA and a 11-7 record across 25 starts. Woo, ranked as the 15th best starting pitcher in MLB according to Power Rankings, has been particularly effective lately, having pitched 7 innings with just 1 earned run in his last outing. In contrast, Yu Darvish of the Padres, though having a respectable 4.25 xFIP, has struggled this season with a 5.36 ERA and a 3-3 record in 9 starts.
From an offensive perspective, the Mariners rank 3rd in the league in home runs, making them a potent threat against Darvish, who is a high-flyball pitcher. This could play to Seattle’s advantage, given their power-hitting capabilities. Meanwhile, the Padres rank 29th in home runs, which poses a challenge against Woo’s flyball tendencies.
Betting lines currently favor the Mariners with a moneyline of -155, reflecting their overall performance and strong bullpen, ranked 4th in MLB. However, the projections suggest that the Mariners’ average implied team total of 4.11 runs indicates a potential for underperformance relative to their talent. With the Padres’ offense lacking punch, they have a low implied total of 3.39 runs, further complicating their chances in this matchup.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Yu Darvish – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Yu Darvish’s slider usage has fallen by 10% from last year to this one (37.2% to 27.2%) .Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)Despite posting a .384 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ramon Laureano has been lucky given the .054 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .330.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Gavin Sheets – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)Gavin Sheets pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.4% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (-150)Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-worst infield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)Jorge Polanco is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Bryan Woo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s game, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 110 games (+9.55 Units / 8% ROI)
- San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 48 away games (+13.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Josh Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+590/-1100)Josh Naylor has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+15.30 Units / 153% ROI)