Reds vs Dodgers Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – 8/25/25

Cincinnati Reds

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Los Angeles Dodgers

On August 25, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Cincinnati Reds in a pivotal matchup at Dodger Stadium. Both teams are positioned firmly in the standings, with the Dodgers boasting a 74-57 record and the Reds sitting at 68-63. While the Dodgers are enjoying a strong season, the Reds are performing above average but have a tougher road ahead as they vie for playoff relevance.

In their most recent outings, the Dodgers defeated the Reds 8-2, while the Reds topped their opponents 6-1. Despite the Dodgers’ recent victory, the Reds are coming off a solid performance and will look to carry that momentum into this series opener.

Expect to see right-handed pitchers Emmet Sheehan and Hunter Greene on the mound. Sheehan, ranked 48th among MLB starters according to the leading MLB projection system, has had an inconsistent year, posting a 4.17 ERA and a 4-2 record across 7 starts. He projects to pitch 4.9 innings while allowing 2.3 earned runs, which signals an average outing. Greene, on the other hand, is performing at an elite level, ranking 23rd among his peers with a stellar 2.63 ERA and a 5-3 record in 13 starts. Greene’s recent form includes an impressive outing where he struck out 12 batters in his last start, a testament to his dominance.

Offensively, the Dodgers boast the 2nd best offense in MLB, highlighted by their power with 196 home runs this season. This high-octane offense is expected to challenge Greene’s high flyball rate, potentially exploiting his weaknesses. Meanwhile, the Reds rank 17th in offensive performance, making it essential for them to capitalize on any mistakes made by Sheehan.

With their strong lineup and an effective bullpen ranked 3rd in MLB, the Dodgers are poised to take advantage of this matchup against a Reds team that may struggle to match their firepower. With a current moneyline of -145, the odds favor the Dodgers, setting the stage for an exciting clash on the diamond.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Hunter Greene – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Hunter Greene’s fastball velocity has spiked 1.1 mph this year (98.7 mph) over where it was last season (97.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Los Angeles’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Spencer Steer, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Cincinnati Reds batters as a group rank 28th- in the majors for power this year when assessing with their 7% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Emmet Sheehan is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue in the majors today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Michael Conforto – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Michael Conforto has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 9.4% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Will Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Will Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+9.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 95 games (+23.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• Andy Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Andy Pages has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.40 Units / 32% ROI)