Uncover Detailed Player Insights for Red Sox vs Orioles – Monday, August 25th, 2025

Boston Red Sox

@

Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles host the Boston Red Sox on August 25, 2025, the matchup carries significant implications, particularly given the Orioles’ current struggles with a record of 60-70 this season, placing them below average in the American League East. In contrast, the Red Sox sit in a solid position at 71-60, reflecting their above-average performance.

In their last meeting, the Orioles managed a narrow victory, besting the Red Sox 3-2, which may provide a psychological edge. However, the Orioles’ recent form raises concerns, as they are not currently contending for a playoff spot.

For this matchup, Tomoyuki Sugano is projected to start for the Orioles. Despite a Win/Loss record of 10-5 and a respectable ERA of 3.97, his advanced-stat Power Ranking places him as the 242nd best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he has struggled compared to his peers. Sugano has been a low-strikeout pitcher this season, facing an uphill battle against a high-strikeout Red Sox lineup that ranks 5th in the league.

Brennan Bernardino takes the mound for Boston, projecting to allow an average of 0.7 earned runs over just 1.4 innings, presenting a vulnerability in the Red Sox rotation. Although Bernardino has shown flashes of effectiveness in the past, he is still primarily a depth option.

The projections indicate that despite the Orioles’ challenges, they have a high implied team total of 4.39 runs for today’s game, suggesting there could be offensive opportunities against a Red Sox bullpen that ranks 4th in the league, contrasting with the Orioles’ 29th-ranked bullpen. With a Game Total of 9.0 runs, bettors should be prepared for a potentially high-scoring affair at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-120)
  Out of all the teams in action today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Roman Anthony – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Roman Anthony has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 11.3 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is considerably lower than his 25.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Boston Red Sox bullpen profiles as the 5th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Tomoyuki Sugano is projected to throw 84 pitches in today’s matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 9th-least on the slate today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Jeremiah Jackson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-260/+195)
  Jeremiah Jackson is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Jackson Holliday has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 68 of their last 121 games (+14.28 Units / 11% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Run Line -1.5 (+135)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 46 games (+13.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Jarren Duran has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 8 away games (+8.45 Units / 79% ROI)