Score Updates for Cubs vs Cardinals - 7/28/26

-110O/U: 8.5
(-120/+100)-110

Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-110)
The Chicago Cubs infield defense projects as the 2nd-best among all the teams today.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Pete Crow-Armstrong’s true offensive skill to be a .347, providing some evidence that he has been very fortunate this year given the .048 gap between that figure and his actual .395 wOBA.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
The Chicago Cubs bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
Recording 17.2 outs per start this year on average, Michael McGreevy places in the 82nd percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Nathan Church – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
In the last two weeks, Nathan Church’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.4% down to 0%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+8.15 Units / 30% ROI)
Chicago Cubs – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 23 away games (+11.10 Units / 38% ROI)
Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1200/-8000)
Nico Hoerner has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+7.00 Units / 175% ROI)

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