
Milwaukee Brewers
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San Francisco Giants
-150O/U: 7.5
(+100/-120)+130
(+100/-120)+130
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Logan Henderson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)The San Francisco Giants have 6 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Logan Henderson in today’s game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Jake Bauers has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 13.4% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past week.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Milwaukee Brewers – 2H MoneylineThe Milwaukee Brewers bullpen grades out as the 5th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Landen Roupp – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Out of all starting pitchers, Landen Roupp’s fastball velocity of 92.7 mph ranks in the 20th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Rafael Devers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)The Milwaukee Brewers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rafael Devers can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Heliot Ramos has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+115/-150)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+8.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+7.25 Units / 30% ROI)
