Find the Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Braves vs Mets – 7/28/26

Atlanta Braves

@

New York Mets

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)
  In his previous start, Chris Sale was firing on all cylinders and allowed 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Austin Riley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Austin Riley has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 100.5-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 90.8-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Drake Baldwin – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Drake Baldwin has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Christian Scott – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Because groundball pitchers have a sizeable advantage over groundball bats, Christian Scott and his 38.5% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong position today being matched up with 2 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The New York Mets have been the unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.85 Units / 47% ROI)
• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-115)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.70 Units / 37% ROI)
• Austin Riley – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-155)
  Austin Riley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.20 Units / 28% ROI)