How to Watch Rockies vs Padres - Tuesday, July 28, 2026

+175O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-205

Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
Out of all SPs, Michael Lorenzen’s fastball spin rate of 2397 rpm is in the 77th percentile this year.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
T.J. Rumfield – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
T.J. Rumfield has been lucky this year, posting a .374 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .299 — a .075 disparity.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
The Colorado Rockies bullpen projects as the worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Michael King – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)
Recording 92.8 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Michael King checks in at the 84th percentile.
Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+5.20 Units / 18% ROI)
Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 18 games (+2.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+190/-255)
Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Walks Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.00 Units / 27% ROI)

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