Check Out the Team Stats and Prediction for Cardinals vs Rays Matchup 8/21/2025

-120O/U: 8.5
(+100/-120)+100

Sonny Gray – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sonny Gray to throw 85 pitches today (7th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Masyn Winn – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
Masyn Winn’s average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 88.1-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 80.5-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
St. Louis’s 89.5-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in MLB: #10 overall.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Joe Boyle – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
Joe Boyle’s slider utilization has decreased by 6.8% from last season to this one (39% to 32.2%) .
Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
When it comes to his batting average, Josh Lowe has had bad variance on his side this year. His .229 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .276.
Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 44 games (+13.35 Units / 26% ROI)
St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 61 away games (+9.41 Units / 13% ROI)
Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
Josh Lowe has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+6.85 Units / 86% ROI)

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