Astros vs Tigers Bets and Betting Trends – 8/18/25

Houston Astros

@

Detroit Tigers

On August 18, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Houston Astros at Comerica Park in the first game of their series. Both teams are enjoying solid seasons, with the Tigers boasting a 73-53 record compared to the Astros’ 69-55. This matchup is crucial as every game counts, especially for the Tigers, who are looking to strengthen their playoff positioning.

In their last games, both teams experienced losses: the Tigers fell to the Astros 8-1, while the Astros were shut out 12-0 by their opponents. Despite these setbacks, the Tigers’ offensive performance this season ranks them as the 10th best in MLB, showcasing their capability to score runs. They are particularly strong in hitting home runs, ranking 9th in that category, which could be a significant factor against a struggling pitcher like Spencer Arrighetti.

Jack Flaherty is projected to take the mound for the Tigers. Although his Win/Loss record stands at 6-12, advanced statistics indicate that he may have been unlucky this season, as reflected in his 3.69 xFIP, suggesting an upward trajectory in performance. Flaherty’s ability to strike out batters—projecting 6.5 strikeouts today—could be pivotal, especially since the Astros rank 13th in offense this year.

In contrast, Arrighetti has struggled, posting a 6.38 ERA and a high 19.1% strikeout rate, which is below average. The projections suggest that both pitchers will allow runs today, but Arrighetti’s challenges may tilt the game in favor of the Tigers, who are favored by the betting lines with a moneyline of -150. Given the Tigers’ offensive capabilities and Flaherty’s potential for a bounce-back performance, they may be well-positioned to capitalize on this matchup.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+150)
  Spencer Arrighetti projects for 2.96 earned runs today, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Yainer Diaz is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 5th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Jack Flaherty’s slider usage has dropped by 6.1% from last season to this one (29% to 22.9%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Riley Greene – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Riley Greene has seen a big gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.8-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 89.8-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Detroit Tigers have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Spencer Torkelson, Dillon Dingler, Riley Greene).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 43 games at home (+12.60 Units / 25% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 84 games (+11.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• Kerry Carpenter – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)
  Kerry Carpenter has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.05 Units / 34% ROI)