Starting Lineup for Phillies vs Nationals – August 17, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Washington Nationals

The Philadelphia Phillies will face off against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on August 17, 2025, in the fourth game of their series. The Phillies are looking to bounce back after a surprising 2-0 loss to the Nationals in their last outing, in which the Nationals secured a rare victory in what has been a challenging season for them. The Phillies, currently holding a solid 70-53 record, sit comfortably in the playoff chase, while the Nationals languish in last place in the National League East with a disappointing 50-73 record.

On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start Mitchell Parker, who has struggled this year, posting a 7-13 record and a troubling 5.55 ERA. While Parker ranks as the 251st best starting pitcher in MLB, his recent performance suggests some bad luck, as his 4.74 FIP indicates he could be due for a turnaround. However, he projects to pitch just 4.9 innings today, allowing 3.1 earned runs and striking out only 3.7 batters, which does not inspire confidence against a potent Phillies lineup.

Opposing him will be Aaron Nola, who has had his own difficulties with a 1-7 record and a 6.16 ERA. Despite this, Nola ranks 74th among MLB starters and is projected to pitch 6.1 innings, allowing an average of 3.0 earned runs while striking out 5.5 batters. The projections suggest that he, too, might have been the victim of bad luck, which could bode well for him in today’s matchup.

The Nationals’ offense ranks 23rd best in MLB, showing little pop with just a 26th rank in home runs, while the Phillies boast a much stronger 10th best offense with a solid team batting average. With the game total set at a high 10.0 runs and the Nationals struggling both at the plate and on the mound, the Phillies are favored to take this matchup and strengthen their positioning in the playoff race.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Aaron Nola has gone to his change-up 5.2% more often this year (14.8%) than he did last season (9.6%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Kyle Schwarber has a ton of pop (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (27.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Mitchell Parker is a pitch-to-contact type (22nd percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Mitchell Parker’s 2170-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 8th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+370/-570)
  Checking in at the 96th percentile for base-stealing, CJ Abrams has average 33.8 steals per 600 plate appearances this year.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• Paul DeJong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Paul DeJong pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.3% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 11th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 41 games at home (+15.45 Units / 32% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 64 away games (+16.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+170/-225)
  Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+6.80 Units / 28% ROI)