Player Prop Bets for Phillies vs Nationals – August 14th, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals will host the Philadelphia Phillies for the first game of a series on August 14, 2025. The Nationals, currently struggling with a record of 48-72, find themselves at the bottom of the National League East, while the Phillies are in strong contention with a 69-51 record. In their last outing, Philadelphia’s Jesus Luzardo threw a complete game shutout, showcasing the type of performance that has contributed to the Phillies’ success this season.

Projected to start for the Nationals is Brad Lord, who holds a 3-6 record and a solid ERA of 3.28 this year. Despite his above-average ranking as the 87th best starting pitcher in MLB, his projections indicate that he may face challenges, with an average outing of just 4.7 innings and a concerning projection of 5.0 hits allowed. Additionally, his 4.39 xERA suggests that his current success might not be sustainable.

On the other side, Luzardo is having a standout season, boasting an 11-5 record and an ERA of 4.20. Although his ERA is slightly above average, his 3.34 xFIP indicates he could be due for better results moving forward. Luzardo’s high strikeout rate of 26.8% will be put to the test against a Nationals offense that ranks 5th in the league for fewest strikeouts, potentially giving Washington an edge in this matchup.

Overall, the Phillies’ offense, ranking 8th in MLB, is projected to score 5.25 runs, while the Nationals’ implied total sits at just 3.75. Given these offensive trends and the recent performances of both pitchers, this series opener shapes up to be a compelling contest, especially for fans of the Phillies who are looking to capitalize on their strong season.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Jesus Luzardo’s slider percentage has risen by 7.8% from last year to this one (29.2% to 37%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (38.1) provides evidence that Kyle Schwarber has had some very good luck this year with his 47.7 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Kyle Schwarber pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.3% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+155)
  In his previous GS, Bradley Lord was rolling and gave up 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Paul DeJong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Paul DeJong is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Washington Nationals (26.1% K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the most strikeout-heavy set of batters of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 51 games (+11.95 Units / 21% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 60 away games (+17.00 Units / 24% ROI)
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+8.55 Units / 25% ROI)