Rays vs Athletics Prediction and Game Breakdown – Tuesday August 12, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Athletics

On August 12, 2025, the Oakland Athletics will host the Tampa Bay Rays in the second game of their series at Sutter Health Park. After a tough loss to the Rays yesterday, where Oakland fell 7-4, they will be looking to bounce back. The Athletics sit at 53-68 this season and are struggling, while the Rays are slightly better at 58-62 but also having a below-average year.

For this matchup, the Athletics will send Jacob Lopez to the mound. Although he has a Win/Loss record of 5-6, his recent performance has been impressive, as he pitched a complete game shutout in his last start on August 7, allowing no earned runs and striking out 10 batters. Lopez ranks as the 74th best starting pitcher in MLB, which is above average, but his projections indicate he might allow around 2.8 earned runs today, which isn’t ideal.

Facing him will be Shane Baz, who has an 8-8 record this year with a 4.92 ERA, signaling a below-average performance. Despite his struggles, Baz ranks as the 55th best starting pitcher, suggesting he has the potential to improve. His projections are similar to Lopez’s, with an expected 3.0 earned runs allowed.

Offensively, the Athletics boast a strong lineup, ranking 7th in MLB in both home runs and overall offense, even if they rank 22nd in stolen bases. The Rays, while average in most categories, excel in stolen bases, sitting 1st in MLB. Betting markets indicate a close game, with both teams’ moneylines set at -110. The Game Total is high at 9.5 runs, reflecting expectations for offensive production from both sides.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Shane Baz’s 96.2-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 91st percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Yandy Diaz tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jacob Lopez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen grades out as the best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Athletics Insights

• Jacob Lopez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Because flyball hitters hold a sizeable advantage over groundball pitchers, Jacob Lopez and his 39.4% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a hard spot today being matched up with 4 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Lawrence Butler is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Luis Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Today, Luis Urias is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37% rate (95th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games at home (+6.65 Units / 30% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 93 games (+12.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• Ha-Seong Kim – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+560/-1000)
  Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+7.00 Units / 175% ROI)