Review Player Predictions Overview for Royals vs Twins – Friday August 8, 2025

Kansas City Royals

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Minnesota Twins

On August 8, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Kansas City Royals at Target Field for the first game of their series. Both teams find themselves in the middle of the pack, with Minnesota sitting at 54-60 and Kansas City at 57-58. The Twins are having a below-average season, while the Royals are performing at an average level. This matchup offers an intriguing contrast, as the Twins’ advanced-stat Power Rankings place their starting pitcher, Joe Ryan, as the 15th best in MLB, while the Royals’ Seth Lugo is considered an average pitcher.

Joe Ryan has been a standout for the Twins, boasting a solid 10-5 record and an impressive ERA of 2.83 this season. However, his 3.56 xFIP suggests that he may have been a bit fortunate and could see his performance decline. Ryan’s ability to generate strikeouts will be put to the test against a Royals offense that ranks 2nd in the league for the least strikeouts. Conversely, while Lugo holds a respectable 3.06 ERA, his higher xFIP of 4.25 indicates he might not be as effective as his ERA suggests.

The Twins’ offense ranks 15th overall but struggles with a .236 batting average, which sits at 21st in MLB. In contrast, the Royals’ offense is rated 26th, though they have an average batting average of .260. This could give the Twins a slight edge, especially with their high implied team total of 4.50 runs for today’s game. Ultimately, the projections favor the Twins, indicating they may have a better shot at success in this matchup, despite their struggles this season.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Seth Lugo’s fastball velocity has fallen 1 mph this season (91.2 mph) below where it was last year (92.2 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Mike Yastrzemski can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bobby Witt Jr. ranks as the 10th-best hitter in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  Joe Ryan is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #23 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Royce Lewis – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Royce Lewis has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .294 figure is significantly deflated relative to his .340 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The Minnesota Twins have done a good job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 16° angle is among the highest in Major League Baseball this year (#4 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 43 games (+11.00 Units / 21% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 69 of their last 109 games (+26.30 Units / 21% ROI)
• Adam Frazier – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+900/-2500)
  Adam Frazier has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 5 games (+11.00 Units / 220% ROI)