Betting Trends for Astros vs Marlins Game – 8/4/25

Houston Astros

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Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins will host the Houston Astros in an intriguing Interleague matchup on August 4, 2025. Both teams are looking to improve their standings, with Miami holding a record of 55-55, while Houston sits at 62-50. While Miami is experiencing an average season, Houston is positioned well above .500.

In their last encounter, Miami emerged victorious with a 7-3 win, providing them a boost in morale. Sandy Alcantara is projected to take the mound for Miami. Despite a rough season marked by a 6-9 record and an ERA of 6.36, Alcantara’s xFIP of 4.50 suggests he has been unlucky this year and has potential for improvement. His recent performance against the Chicago Cubs, where he pitched 5 innings with no earned runs, showcases his capability when he’s on.

Facing Alcantara will be Jason Alexander, who has struggled this season with a 1-1 record and an ERA of 7.36. Alexander’s projections indicate he may allow 3.0 earned runs while pitching an average of 5.3 innings. Moreover, his low strikeout rate of 16.1% will be challenged against a Marlins offense that ranks 6th in the league for fewest strikeouts.

Despite the Marlins ranking 20th in overall offensive production, they are performing well with a batting average that ranks 10th in MLB this season. The projections suggest that Miami has a solid implied team total of 4.45 runs, which might not be fully accounted for in the current betting lines. The upcoming game has a total set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive matchup. With their recent momentum and Alcantara’s potential bounce-back, the Marlins could very well surprise the Astros in this July showdown.

Houston Astros Insights

• Jason Alexander – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Out of all starters, Jason Alexander’s fastball velocity of 90.5 mph is in the 15th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+200/-265)
  Yainer Diaz is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Because flyball pitchers hold a notable advantage over flyball hitters, Sandy Alcantara and his 48.6% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong spot today facing 2 opposing FB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Graham Pauley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Graham Pauley’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 85.7-mph seasonal average has fallen to 79.9-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-130)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 70 games (+19.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 away games (+14.95 Units / 25% ROI)
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.60 Units / 23% ROI)