Check Out the Match Preview: Giants vs Pirates Game Forecast and Analysis – 8/04/2025

San Francisco Giants

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

On August 4, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the San Francisco Giants in a critical National League matchup at PNC Park. Both teams are struggling to find their groove this season, with Pittsburgh sitting at 48-64 and San Francisco at 56-56. The Pirates have particularly faced challenges offensively, ranking 30th in MLB for team home runs, which puts them in a tough spot against a high-flyball pitcher like Justin Verlander.

Justin Verlander is projected to start for the Giants, bringing an average ERA of 4.53 this season and a troubling 1-8 win/loss record. Although he has been considered below average this year, he can capitalize on Pittsburgh’s lack of power hitters. In contrast, Johan Oviedo is slated to pitch for the Pirates, ranking 181st out of approximately 350 starters in MLB, which highlights his struggles on the mound. Oviedo is projected to pitch only 4.8 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs, and his tendency to give up 4.9 hits could further burden the Pirates’ defense.

In their last outing, the Giants displayed some offensive prowess, scoring 6 runs against the Pirates, while Pittsburgh managed just 2 runs, showcasing their ongoing offensive issues. However, with the projections favoring Pittsburgh to score an average of 4.00 runs in this matchup, there is a glimmer of hope that their best hitter, who has been effective lately, could spark some life into the lineup.

As the game total stands at an average 8.5 runs, betting markets view this matchup as closely contested, with the Giants slightly favored. With the Pirates having an average bullpen ranking of 15th and the Giants at 17th, this game could hinge on late innings and the ability of both starters to navigate through tough lineups.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Justin Verlander – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Justin Verlander’s fastball spin rate of 2437 rpm is in the 83rd percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Willy Adames’s average exit velocity has declined of late; his 89.4-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 83-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Casey Schmitt – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-205/+155)
  In today’s matchup, Casey Schmitt is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.5% rate (85th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Johan Oviedo – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Johan Oviedo to have a pitch count in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Extreme groundball batters like Tommy Pham tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Justin Verlander.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be wise to expect improved performance for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the unluckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 63 of their last 101 games (+21.65 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 66 games (+8.40 Units / 12% ROI)
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Oneil Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 10 games at home (+5.20 Units / 49% ROI)