Pittsburgh Pirates
Colorado Rockies
(-110/-110)+200
The Colorado Rockies host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Coors Field on August 2, 2025, in a matchup that features two struggling teams. The Rockies sit at the bottom of the National League West with a dismal record of 29-80, while the Pirates are in a similar situation in the Central, holding a record of 47-63. Both teams are not contending for a playoff spot, and the Rockies are coming off a thrilling 17-16 victory over the Pirates in their last game, which showcased both teams’ offensive struggles despite the high score.
On the mound, Colorado is set to start Austin Gomber, who has had a rough season with an 0-5 record and a troubling ERA of 6.28. Gomber’s last outing was uneventful, as he went just 4 innings, giving up 4 earned runs. His projection for today suggests he will struggle again, averaging 3.9 earned runs over 4.7 innings. Conversely, Pittsburgh will counter with Paul Skenes, who has emerged as one of the league’s elite pitchers, currently ranked 2nd overall. Skenes boasts an impressive 1.83 ERA and is fresh off a strong performance, pitching 6 innings without allowing a run and striking out 9 batters.
Offensively, the Rockies rank 25th in the league while the Pirates sit at rock bottom with the 30th-ranked offense. However, the Rockies do have the advantage of facing a Pirates lineup that has struggled to hit for power, making Gomber’s flyball tendencies less of a concern. Meanwhile, Skenes’ ability to generate strikeouts against a Rockies team that ranks 2nd in strikeouts could spell trouble for Colorado.
With a Game Total set at 10.0 runs, the Rockies’ underdog status at +185 presents a tempting opportunity for bettors, particularly given that their offensive output has shown flashes of life, despite their overall struggles this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)Paul Skenes’s 97.5-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.4-mph decline from last season’s 98.9-mph mark.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Oneil Cruz has a ton of pop (99th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (30.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Austin Gomber struggles to strike batters out (9th percentile K%) — great news for Cruz.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the most strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 25.7% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Austin Gomber – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-150)Austin Gomber has tallied 14.5 outs per GS this year, ranking in the 16th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Thairo Estrada – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Thairo Estrada’s average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 86.6-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 83.7-mph over the last week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Colorado Rockies hitters as a group rank near the bottom of the majors this year ( 8th-worst) in regard to their 89-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 89 games (+9.62 Units / 9% ROI)
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 6.5 Team Total (+105/-135)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 59 of their last 96 games (+19.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+100/-130)Nick Gonzales has hit the RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+5.85 Units / 28% ROI)