Check Out Picks and Betting Guide for Braves vs Reds – 7/31/25

Atlanta Braves

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Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Atlanta Braves on July 31, 2025, in the first game of their series. Currently in the thick of the National League race, the Reds sport a record of 57-52, positioning themselves as a moderately competitive team this season. In contrast, the Braves are struggling, sitting at 45-62 with one of the worst records in the league.

In their last games, the Reds secured a solid 5-2 victory over the Milwaukee Brewers, while the Braves faltered, losing 1-0 to the San Francisco Giants. The Reds are projected to start Andrew Abbott, who has been particularly impressive this season, posting an 8-1 record and an exceptional ERA of 2.09. Though his xFIP suggests slight regression may be on the horizon, he remains a strong contender, having pitched well in his last start, allowing just one earned run over six innings. His ability to limit walks (6.7 BB%) could play a crucial role against the Braves’ high-walk offense, which ranks 3rd in MLB.

The Braves will counter with Carlos Carrasco, who is having a rough year with a 2-2 record and a lofty ERA of 5.91. The projections indicate that Carrasco’s luck may turn soon, but his last start saw him yielding four earned runs in just three innings, raising concerns about his current form.

Offensively, the Reds rank 15th in the league, showing decent potential, while the Braves’ offense is struggling at 20th. With the Reds’ best hitter maintaining a strong performance recently—a .375 batting average over the last week—the odds favor Cincinnati in this matchup. As betting favorites with a moneyline of -155, the Reds have an implied team total of 4.94 runs, suggesting confidence in their ability to capitalize on Carrasco’s struggles.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (+140)
  The Atlanta Braves outfield defense projects as the best out of all the teams today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Cincinnati’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of the day creates a favorable matchup for Ozzie Albies, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Atlanta Braves batters jointly grade out 8th- in the league for power this year when judging by their 9.4% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)
  Andrew Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #2 HR venue among all stadiums in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Noelvi Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+200/-265)
  Noelvi Marte has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (78% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Spencer Steer pulls many of his flyballs (36.6% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 7th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 103 games (+19.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 27 games (+6.10 Units / 20% ROI)
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Ozzie Albies has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+4.00 Units / 12% ROI)