Explore Rangers vs Angels Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 7/28/2025

Texas Rangers

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Los Angeles Angels

On July 28, 2025, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Texas Rangers at Angel Stadium, marking the first game of a crucial series between these American League West rivals. Both teams come off contrasting performances; the Angels secured a solid 4-1 victory in their last outing, while the Rangers dominated their previous game, winning 8-1. As it stands, the Angels are struggling with a 51-55 record, placing them below average this season, while the Rangers hold a better 56-50 record, indicating a stronger showing overall.

Starting for the Angels is Jack Kochanowicz, whose performance has been inconsistent, reflected in his 3-9 record and an alarming ERA of 6.03. Despite being ranked as the 198th best starting pitcher in MLB, projections suggest he might improve, as his 4.82 xFIP indicates some bad luck this season. Meanwhile, Jacob deGrom takes the mound for the Rangers, presenting a significant challenge for the Angels. DeGrom boasts a stellar 2.28 ERA and a 10-2 record, ranking him 11th among MLB pitchers. His ability to generate strikeouts—evidenced by a 26.9 K%—plays to the Angels’ weakness, as they rank 1st in the league for strikeouts.

From an offensive standpoint, the Angels’ lineup ranks 19th overall, with an impressive 4th in home runs, but they struggle with a batting average that places them 24th in MLB. Recent projections indicate they may only muster around 3.51 runs today. Conversely, while the Rangers also struggle at the plate, ranking 26th in overall offense and 27th in batting average, they project to score nearly 5 runs. Given these dynamics, the Rangers appear to have the upper hand in today’s matchup, especially with their elite pitcher against a struggling Angels offense.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Despite technically being the “starter” in today’s game, Jacob deGrom may not last more than a couple framess considering he will be treated as more of an opener.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Batters such as Marcus Semien with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Jack Kochanowicz who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be smart to expect better results for the Texas Rangers offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+135/-170)
  Jack Kochanowicz’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (34.5% compared to 21.5% last season) ought to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  In the past two weeks, Nolan Schanuel’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Angels bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +1.0 (+105)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 51 games (+14.25 Units / 24% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 24 games (+11.45 Units / 38% ROI)
• Evan Carter – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+130/-165)
  Evan Carter has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+12.65 Units / 63% ROI)