Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Mets vs Giants – Sunday, July 27th, 2025

New York Mets

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San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants host the New York Mets in the third game of their series on July 27, 2025, at Oracle Park. After a tightly contested matchup yesterday, where the Giants fell 2-1 to the Mets, both teams look to capitalize on their current form. The Giants, with a record of 54-51, are having an average season, while the Mets, sitting at 61-44, are enjoying a strong campaign.

Matt Gage, projected to make his first start of the year after nine appearances out of the bullpen, has an impressive 0.00 ERA. However, his 4.12 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit lucky, projecting to allow 0.7 earned runs in just 1.3 innings today. Meanwhile, Kodai Senga, who has established himself as a quality starter with a 1.79 ERA and a 7-3 record, will take the mound for the Mets. However, he is coming off a rough outing where he allowed 4 earned runs in just 3 innings, raising questions about his consistency.

Offensively, the Giants struggle, ranking 24th in MLB overall and 29th in stolen bases, while the Mets are holding steady at 12th in the league. With their power-hitting capability, the Mets feature the 8th best home run ranking this season, giving them an edge against Gage in what could be a high-scoring game. According to projections, the Giants might find opportunities to draw walks against Senga, who has a tendency to issue free passes.

Betting markets indicate a close contest, with the Giants sitting at +100 and the Mets at -120. The projected game total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting a balanced expectation for offensive output. As both teams look to solidify their respective standings, this matchup promises to deliver an intriguing battle on the diamond.

New York Mets Insights

• Kodai Senga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  In his previous outing, Kodai Senga was firing on all cylinders and notched 8 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Despite posting a .342 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jeff McNeil has been lucky given the .036 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .306.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Despite technically being the “starter” in today’s matchup, Matt Gage may not last more than a couple frames considering he will be treated as more of an opener.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Wilmer Flores has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (79% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Heliot Ramos has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 28 games at home (+10.80 Units / 33% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 45 away games (+12.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+180)
  Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 69% ROI)