Cubs vs White Sox Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Sunday, July 27, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Chicago White Sox

On July 27, 2025, the Chicago White Sox will host the Chicago Cubs in the third game of their Interleague series at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Cubs come into this matchup riding high after a solid 6-1 victory against the White Sox just a day earlier. With a record of 61-43, the Cubs are among the top contenders in the league, showcasing the 3rd best offense in MLB. In stark contrast, the White Sox sit at the bottom of the standings with a dismal 38-67 record, marking a season to forget.

The Cubs will send Ben Brown to the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled with a 6.48 ERA this season but has a more encouraging 3.68 xFIP, suggesting he may be due for better results. Brown is projected to pitch around 4.6 innings today, allowing 2.1 earned runs on average. Meanwhile, the White Sox will counter with Grant Taylor, who has had a rocky start to his season, posting a 3.93 ERA, albeit with a 2.46 xFIP indicating he’s been somewhat unlucky. Taylor’s projections are not promising, as he is expected to pitch just 1.5 innings and allow 0.6 earned runs.

Offensively, the Cubs have been explosive, ranking 3rd in home runs and batting average, while the White Sox have struggled significantly, sitting 29th in both categories. The projections favor the Cubs to score around 4.77 runs today, while the White Sox are projected for a paltry 3.73 runs, reflecting their ongoing struggles at the plate.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Ben Brown – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Ben Brown’s 95.2-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.3-mph decline from last season’s 96.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Carson Kelly’s true offensive talent to be a .327, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .054 disparity between that figure and his actual .381 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Chicago Cubs hitters collectively grade out 4th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 10.4% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Despite technically being the “starter” in today’s matchup, Grant Taylor may not pitch more than a couple innings consider he will function as more of an opener.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Luis Robert – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Luis Robert Jr. is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Mike Tauchman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Mike Tauchman has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 5th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-120)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 49 games at home (+14.45 Units / 24% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-170)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 94 games (+7.35 Units / 5% ROI)
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-145/+115)
  Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.25 Units / 35% ROI)