Discover the Rockies vs Orioles Preview and Prediction – Sunday July 27, 2025

Colorado Rockies

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Baltimore Orioles

On July 27, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Colorado Rockies at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in what marks the third game of this interleague series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Orioles sitting at 46-58 and the Rockies at a dismal 27-77. In their last outing on July 26, the Orioles crushed the Rockies 18-0, a result that is indicative of the challenges facing Colorado this year.

Pitching matchup favors Baltimore’s Tomoyuki Sugano, who is projected to start. Despite being ranked as the 303rd best starting pitcher in MLB, Sugano still has a win/loss record of 7-5 and an average ERA of 4.54 this season. His performance suggests he has been fortunate, as evidenced by a 6.07 xERA. Conversely, Rockies’ Austin Gomber, with an 0-4 record and a troubling ERA of 6.03, has also struggled. Gomber’s projections indicate he could allow 3.5 earned runs and 6.1 hits over an average of 5.0 innings, which is concerning for Colorado.

The Orioles’ offense ranks 21st, showing flashes of power with a respectable 11th ranking in home runs. Meanwhile, the Rockies’ offense is ranked 26th overall and is particularly vulnerable with the second-most strikeouts in MLB. This matchup between a below-average offense facing a low-strikeout pitcher like Sugano should theoretically favor the Orioles.

With a high Game Total of 10.0 runs and the Orioles as significant favorites at -205, they hold a projected team total of 5.83 runs. Given the recent performance and the favorable pitching matchup, Baltimore’s chances of securing another win look promising.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Austin Gomber – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Due to his reverse platoon split, Austin Gomber will be at an advantage matching up with 7 bats in the projected batting order who hit from the other side in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mickey Moniak’s true offensive ability to be a .316, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .054 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .370 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Orlando Arcia – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  In today’s game, Orlando Arcia is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.7% rate (87th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Tomoyuki Sugano didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking batters out in his last GS and put up 1 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Tyler O’Neill has big-time HR ability (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (27.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Austin Gomber struggles to strike batters out (18th percentile K%) — great news for O’Neill.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• The Baltimore Orioles (26% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the most strikeout-heavy group of hitters of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 88 games (+11.53 Units / 12% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 91 games (+12.02 Units / 11% ROI)
• Jordan Beck – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Jordan Beck has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.15 Units / 22% ROI)