Review Betting Odds and Picks for Phillies vs Yankees – Sunday, July 27, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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New York Yankees

The New York Yankees welcome the Philadelphia Phillies to Yankee Stadium for the third game of their interleague series on July 27, 2025. The Yankees find themselves in a competitive position with a record of 56-48, while the Phillies are enjoying a strong season at 60-44, currently holding a comfortable spot in the playoff race. The stakes are high as both teams look to secure a series win after the Phillies took the previous game convincingly, winning 9-4.

Projected starters for this matchup feature the Yankees’ Carlos Rodon, who is having a solid season with a 3.10 ERA and a Power Ranking that places him as the 68th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, Rodon’s underlying stats suggest he may be due for some regression, as his 3.69 xFIP indicates a bit of luck this year. Conversely, the Phillies counter with Zack Wheeler, currently ranked 3rd among MLB pitchers. Wheeler boasts a stellar 2.39 ERA and is coming off a strong performance in his last outing, where he pitched six innings with just two earned runs and ten strikeouts.

Offensively, the Yankees rank 1st in MLB in home runs and have a dynamic lineup that is capable of explosive output. Their top hitter has been particularly impressive, accumulating 37 home runs this season along with an OPS of 1.160. However, they face a challenge against Wheeler’s exceptional control, as he generates a low walk rate of 5.3%. This matchup favors Wheeler, especially considering the Yankees have struggled to generate walks against elite pitchers.

With the game total set at 7.5 runs and the Yankees carrying a low implied team total of 3.53 runs, there’s potential for an upset, particularly if Rodon can outshine his projections. As the Yankees look to rebound from their recent loss, they will need a strong performance from Rodon and their powerful offense to turn the tide in this critical series.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Zack Wheeler’s 2475-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 89th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Despite posting a .405 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Kyle Schwarber has been very fortunate given the .040 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .365.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Philadelphia’s 89.8-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the majors: #5 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Carlos Rodon has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 5.9 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Ryan McMahon is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Anthony Volpe hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 6th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 24 games (+10.50 Units / 40% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 45 of their last 86 games (+12.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+420/-660)
  Cody Bellinger has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+11.40 Units / 114% ROI)