Rankings and Game Forecast: Rays vs Reds Analysis – Saturday July 26, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds host the Tampa Bay Rays on July 26, 2025, both teams are looking to make a statement in this crucial Interleague matchup. The Reds currently sit with a record of 54-50, showing they are having an above-average season, while the Rays are at 53-51, indicating a more average performance. In their last meeting, the Reds secured a win, which sets the stage for an intriguing rematch.

Projected starters Andrew Abbott for the Reds and Ryan Pepiot for the Rays provide an interesting contrast on the mound. Abbott, a left-handed pitcher, boasts an impressive ERA of 2.13 this season, despite a higher xFIP of 4.10, suggesting he may have been a bit fortunate thus far. He has started 17 games and holds a solid 8-1 record, but projections indicate he may allow 3.1 earned runs today, which could be a concern for Cincinnati’s defense.

On the other hand, Pepiot has started 21 games with a record of 6-8 and an ERA of 3.59. While his FIP of 4.47 indicates potential struggles, his projections suggest he may allow only 2.8 earned runs, giving the Rays an edge in this matchup. Pepiot’s strikeout potential is slightly better than Abbott’s, which could play a key role in limiting the Reds’ offense.

Offensively, both teams have shown average to above-average talent. The Reds rank 15th in MLB for runs scored, while the Rays sit just ahead at 13th. However, the Reds’ power has been lacking, ranking 20th in home runs this season. With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, bettors should expect a competitive game, but the Reds’ implied team total of 4.61 runs suggests they may have the upper hand today, especially with their top hitter performing at a high level recently.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Ryan Pepiot has relied on his four-seamer 7.1% less often this year (43.6%) than he did last year (50.7%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Taylor Walls – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Taylor Walls’s average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 85.9-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 78.2-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christopher Morel, Jonathan Aranda, Jose Caballero).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the worst out of every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Austin Hays – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Austin Hays has been lucky this year, putting up a .362 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .313 — a .049 difference.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Cincinnati Reds hitters as a unit place 28th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 7.2% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 47 games at home (+14.60 Units / 28% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 58 of their last 98 games (+11.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• Austin Hays – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+120/-155)
  Austin Hays has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 55% ROI)