Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Blue Jays vs Athletics – Sunday July 13, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Athletics

The Oakland Athletics are set to host the Toronto Blue Jays on July 13, 2025, at Sutter Health Park, looking to build on their recent victory. The Athletics edged out the Blue Jays 4-3 in their last matchup on July 12, snapping a losing streak and giving them a much-needed boost in morale. However, they remain well out of contention with a record of 40-57 this season, while the Blue Jays are enjoying a strong campaign at 55-40.

In this American League showdown, the Athletics will send Jeffrey Springs to the mound. Springs has had a mixed season, posting a Win/Loss record of 7-6 and a solid ERA of 3.92. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been somewhat fortunate, as his 4.79 xFIP indicates he could struggle moving forward. Springs projects to pitch 5.2 innings today, allowing an average of 3.2 earned runs, which could spell trouble against a potent Blue Jays lineup.

On the other side, Toronto will counter with Jose Berrios, who has a 5-3 record and a commendable ERA of 3.53. While Berrios is also considered a below-average pitcher by some metrics, he has been effective in recent outings, having allowed just 1 earned run in his last start. Berrios projects to pitch 5.6 innings today, with projections indicating he will give up around 3.1 earned runs.

Offensively, the Blue Jays boast the 1st best batting average in MLB this season, while the Athletics rank 14th. The Athletics’ ability to hit home runs (ranking 7th) could play a crucial role, but with Berrios on the mound, they will need to capitalize on any scoring opportunities. The game total is set at a high 10.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive matchup. With the Athletics holding an implied team total of 4.77 runs and the Blue Jays at 5.23, this game could be closer than the records suggest.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Jose Berrios’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.9 mph this season (91.6 mph) below where it was last year (93.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-140)
  Alejandro Kirk has performed at a clip of 0 stolen bases per 600 plate appearances this year, checking in at the 0th percentile for base-stealing.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• Davis Schneider – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Davis Schneider pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.2% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Athletics Insights

• Jeffrey Springs – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Jeffrey Springs (37.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 2 GB hitters in Toronto’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Typically, hitters like Brent Rooker who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Jose Berrios.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Athletics have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Max Muncy, Nicholas Kurtz, Austin Wynns, Denzel Clarke).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 58 games (+6.27 Units / 9% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-130)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 42 games (+13.95 Units / 25% ROI)
• Tyler Soderstrom – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Tyler Soderstrom has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+6.45 Units / 46% ROI)