Check Out Blue Jays vs Athletics Picks and Betting Tips – Saturday July 12th, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Athletics

The Oakland Athletics will host the Toronto Blue Jays on July 12, 2025, in a matchup that highlights the stark contrast between two teams in very different places this season. The Athletics, currently sitting at 39-57, are struggling significantly, while the Blue Jays boast a much healthier record of 55-39. This game marks the second in a series where the Blue Jays edged out the Athletics 7-6 in a nail-biter yesterday.

On the mound, the Athletics are projected to start Jacob Lopez, a left-handed pitcher who has had a rough season with a 2-5 record and a 4.26 ERA. While he has shown flashes of potential with a solid 3.58 SIERA, Lopez struggles in key areas, projecting to allow 2.9 earned runs in just 4.8 innings today, which could be a significant hurdle against a potent Blue Jays lineup. His high strikeout rate of 28.2% may be neutralized against a Blue Jays offense that ranks 1st in the league for fewest strikeouts, giving Toronto a potential advantage.

Kevin Gausman, the Blue Jays’ projected starter, has had his own challenges this season, with a 6-6 record and a 4.13 ERA. Despite being regarded as below average in some metrics, Gausman can still be effective, particularly considering he projects to pitch 5.7 innings today.

Offensively, the Athletics rank 13th in the league, bolstered by their power game with a 7th place ranking in home runs. Conversely, the Blue Jays rank 10th overall, with a stellar 2nd place in batting average. With both teams showing potential for scoring, the Game Total is set high at 10.0 runs, reflecting expectations of an offensive showdown.

In terms of betting lines, the Athletics are seen as underdogs with a +125 moneyline, while the Blue Jays are favored at -145. With a projected team total of 5.39 runs, the Blue Jays seem to have the upper hand, but the Athletics’ ability to hit for power could keep them competitive.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Given that flyball hitters hold a big advantage over groundball pitchers, Kevin Gausman and his 36.1% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough spot today squaring off against 2 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ernie Clement – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+145/-190)
  Ernie Clement has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (85% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Davis Schneider – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Davis Schneider pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.2% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Athletics Insights

• Jacob Lopez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have 8 bats in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jacob Lopez today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+460/-750)
  Lawrence Butler has paced 23.5 swiped bags per 600 plate appearances this year, ranking in the 84th percentile for base-stealing.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• The Athletics have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Denzel Clarke, Nicholas Kurtz, Max Muncy).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 60 games (+8.10 Units / 12% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-135)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 61 games (+14.54 Units / 19% ROI)
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  Nick Kurtz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+7.00 Units / 29% ROI)