Review Betting Odds and Picks for Phillies vs Padres – Saturday, July 12, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Petco Park for the second game of their series on July 12, 2025. The Padres, currently sitting at 51-43, are experiencing an above-average season, while the Phillies boast a 54-40 record, indicating a strong campaign. Both teams come off yesterday’s game, where the Padres triumphed 4-2, marking their moment to build on that momentum.

Yu Darvish is projected to start for the Padres, but he has struggled this season with a 0-1 record and an ERA of 4.91. While his advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky, he still projects to pitch only 4.6 innings today, which could put additional strain on a bullpen ranked 20th in MLB. Facing him will be Zack Wheeler, who has been nothing short of exceptional with a 9-3 record and an ERA of 2.17, making him the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to Power Rankings.

The Padres’ offense ranks just 23rd overall, and while their batting average sits at a mediocre 18th, their inability to hit home runs is concerning, as they rank 27th in that category. In contrast, the Phillies have the 7th best offense and are particularly effective at generating runs, making them a tough matchup. Given Wheeler’s ability to rack up strikeouts—33.6% this year—against a Padres lineup that ranks 3rd in least strikeouts, the Phillies could have the upper hand.

With the projected game total sitting low at 7.5 runs, it will be interesting to see if the Padres can capitalize on their recent win to challenge the elite Wheeler and the potent Phillies’ offense.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-225)
  Zack Wheeler is an extreme flyball pitcher (35% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #8 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner as the 12th-best batter in the game as it relates to his batting average ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-170)
  The Philadelphia Phillies projected lineup profiles as the 3rd-best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Yu Darvish – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Yu Darvish must realize this, because he has relied on his non-fastballs a lot since the start of last season: 65.2% of the time, checking in at the 90th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
  Jackson Merrill is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The 7.1% Barrel% of the San Diego Padres ranks them as the #28 group of hitters in the majors this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 54 games (+19.50 Units / 30% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 63 games (+11.85 Units / 17% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+250/-345)
  Kyle Schwarber has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 games (+11.50 Units / 128% ROI)