Discover the Game Location for Marlins vs Orioles – Saturday, July 12, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Miami Marlins on July 12, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling this season, sitting below .500. The Orioles hold a record of 43-50, while the Marlins are slightly behind at 42-51. This matchup becomes even more intriguing following the Orioles’ recent victory over the Marlins on July 11, where they secured a 5-2 win.

The Orioles are set to start Trevor Rogers, who despite being ranked as the 175th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, boasts an impressive ERA of 1.57 this season. However, his underlying metrics suggest he might be due for some regression, as his xFIP sits at 3.80, indicating he has been somewhat lucky so far. Rogers projects to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing approximately 2.7 earned runs while striking out 4.7 batters on average.

On the other side, the Marlins will counter with Janson Junk, who has also had his share of challenges. Junk has a solid 3.12 ERA, but his xERA of 3.89 suggests he may not maintain this level of performance. He projects for 4.9 innings, allowing about 3.0 earned runs, and his low strikeout rate of 4.1 makes him vulnerable against a lineup that ranks 19th in MLB offensively.

Given the projections, the Orioles have a favorable implied team total of 5.02 runs, indicating a high expectation for their offense. This, combined with Rogers’ recent performance and the Marlins’ struggles, gives Baltimore a solid edge in this interleague matchup. As both teams look to turn their seasons around, the Orioles will aim to build momentum from their recent win, while the Marlins will seek to bounce back from their defeat.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Janson Junk – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Janson Junk’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (61.7% since the start of last season) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Kyle Stowers has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (93% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Miami Marlins bats jointly place 21st- in MLB for power this year when using their 8% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Trevor Rogers’s 2423-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 81st percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jacob Stallings – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)
  Grading out in the 0th percentile for base-stealing, Jacob Stallings has average 0 stolen bases per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.9% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 78 games (+13.13 Units / 15% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+145)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 away games (+12.85 Units / 51% ROI)
• Agustin Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+6.30 Units / 22% ROI)