Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres
(-110/-110)+135
On July 11, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Petco Park for the first game of their series. The Padres sit at 50-43 this season, enjoying an above-average campaign, while the Phillies boast a strong 54-39 record, positioning themselves firmly among the top teams in the National League. This matchup is intriguing as both teams are looking to solidify their standings—especially the Padres, who are hoping to close the gap on the Wild Card spots.
In their last outing, the Padres struggled, falling to the Phillies. Now, they’ll need to rebound against a tough Philadelphia lineup. San Diego’s offense ranks just 23rd in the league, and they’ve been particularly weak in hitting home runs, sitting at 27th overall. This lack of power could be problematic against Ranger Suarez, who is projected to start for the Phillies. Suarez, ranked as the 19th best starting pitcher in MLB by advanced metrics, has been in excellent form, reflected in his 1.99 ERA this season.
Ryan Bergert is slated to take the mound for the Padres, but he carries a low Power Rankings position at 232nd. While he has produced a solid 2.67 ERA this season, his higher xFIP suggests he may be due for regression. His projection of 4.5 innings pitched with an average of 2.7 earned runs allowed doesn’t inspire confidence.
The projections indicate that the Phillies have a significant edge in this matchup, with their lineup performing much better overall. While the Padres’ bullpen is rated 15th in the league, it’s the Phillies’ offensive strength that could make the difference, as they rank 8th in MLB. With the game total set at 8.0 runs, bettors should watch closely as the odds suggest a favorable outcome for Philadelphia.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Ranger Suarez’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (59% vs. 49.1% last season) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Bryson Stott has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (54% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Philadelphia’s 89.7-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in MLB: #6 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Ryan Bergert – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Ryan Bergert’s 2411-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 79th percentile out of all starting pitchers.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)Jose Iglesias’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 85.8-mph figure last season has dropped to 83.4-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 64 games (+16.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-175)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 74 games (+12.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)Ranger Suarez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 7 away games (+7.70 Units / 82% ROI)