Bets and Betting Tips for Rangers vs Astros – July 11, 2025

Texas Rangers

@

Houston Astros

On July 11, 2025, a significant matchup unfolds at Minute Maid Park as the Houston Astros host the Texas Rangers in the first game of a series. The Astros, currently sitting at 55-38, are enjoying a solid season and rank 9th in overall offense, while boasting the top batting average in MLB. In contrast, the Rangers hold a record of 46-48 and find themselves in the lower echelon of offensive rankings, positioned 27th in both overall offense and batting average.

In their last outing, the Astros showcased their prowess with a dominant performance, evidenced by their best hitter recording 12 RBIs over the past week, a clear indicator of the team’s offensive firepower. Lance McCullers Jr., projected to start for Houston, has had a rocky season with a 2-3 record and a troubling ERA of 5.82. However, his 4.59 xFIP suggests he has faced some misfortune, hinting at potential improvement. McCullers projects to pitch around 5.3 innings today, allowing approximately 2.6 earned runs.

Jack Leiter takes the mound for Texas, struggling with a 4-6 record and an ERA of 4.32. While he has shown flashes of potential, his advanced metrics indicate he may have been fortunate thus far. With a low strikeout rate and high walk percentage, Leiter could face challenges against the disciplined Astros lineup.

The Astros’ bullpen ranks 1st in MLB, providing a significant edge late in games, while the Rangers’ bullpen sits at 27th. Given the Astros’ offensive depth and pitching advantages, Houston appears poised to capitalize on this matchup as they look to extend their lead in the American League West. The current moneyline reflects a competitive game, with the Astros favored at -135, but the statistics suggest they may outperform expectations.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jack Leiter – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  Generating 15 outs per outing this year on average, Jack Leiter checks in at the 25th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Kyle Higashioka – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Extreme flyball batters like Kyle Higashioka generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Lance McCullers Jr..
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be sensible to expect improved performance for the Texas Rangers offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 5th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Houston Astros Insights

• Lance McCullers Jr. – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Lance McCullers Jr. must realize this, because he has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot this year: 72.5% of the time, checking in at the 97th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Cam Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Cam Smith is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Moneyline (-125)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 53 games (+14.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 77 games (+14.70 Units / 17% ROI)
• Cam Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Cam Smith has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+7.25 Units / 14% ROI)