See the Guardians vs Astros Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – Monday July 7th, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros and Cleveland Guardians prepare for their matchup on July 7, 2025, the Astros sit comfortably in the American League with a record of 55-35, while the Guardians struggle, sitting at 40-48. This game marks the opening of a series between two teams trending in opposite directions. The Astros are coming off a solid 5-1 win against their rivals, showcasing both their strong offense, which ranks 1st in MLB in team batting average, and a reliable bullpen rated the 7th best in the league. Meanwhile, the Guardians recently lost to the Chicago White Sox, falling 7-2 in a game that highlighted their offensive struggles, ranking 28th in the league.

On the mound, the Astros are projected to start Colton Gordon, a left-handed pitcher who, despite an average ERA of 4.37, has been somewhat unlucky this season, as indicated by his xFIP of 3.67. Gordon has a respectable Win/Loss record of 3-1 but has allowed an alarming average of 4.9 hits per game, which could be a concern against an Astros lineup that’s been producing consistently. Conversely, Tanner Bibee will take the hill for the Guardians. Although Bibee’s 4.20 ERA is slightly above average, he has the 54th best ranking among MLB pitchers and is expected to pitch 6.0 innings today, bringing a bit of stability to an otherwise inconsistent rotation.

The projections suggest that the Astros, with an implied total of 4.01 runs, are more likely to score against Bibee, especially given the Guardians’ offensive woes. With their ability to generate runs and Gordon’s potential for an improved outing, the Astros are positioned well to secure a victory in this matchup.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Tanner Bibee’s cutter percentage has dropped by 5.7% from last season to this one (24.4% to 18.7%) .
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Typically, batters like Jose Ramirez who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Colton Gordon.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Colton Gordon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Colton Gordon’s 2043-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 7th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Yainer Diaz has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (61% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be best to expect worse results for the Houston Astros offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 5th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Moneyline (-135)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 37 games at home (+17.35 Units / 35% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 81 games (+13.74 Units / 15% ROI)
• Jake Meyers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Jake Meyers has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.80 Units / 36% ROI)