Uncover the Game Forecast: Royals vs D-Backs Head-to-Head Analysis 7/06/25

Kansas City Royals

@

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Kansas City Royals at Chase Field on July 6, 2025, in the third game of their interleague series. The Diamondbacks, currently 44-45, sit just below .500 while the Royals are struggling at 42-48, ranking 26th in MLB offense. Both teams are looking to find consistency as they head into the second half of the season.

In their most recent matchup, the Diamondbacks edged out the Royals in a close contest but did not deliver any standout performances. Arizona boasts an impressive offensive lineup, ranking 3rd in the league, and their power-hitting capabilities could pose problems for Royals pitcher Michael Lorenzen, who is a high-flyball pitcher facing a team that has already hit 132 home runs this season, good for 4th most in MLB.

The Diamondbacks will send Anthony DeSclafani to the mound. Although he hasn’t started a game this year, his peripherals suggest he may improve with a 3.86 xFIP, indicating he’s faced some bad luck thus far. However, DeSclafani’s projections indicate he may struggle today, averaging only 4.7 innings and allowing 2.4 earned runs.

Lorenzen, on the other hand, has started 17 games this year but has struggled with a 4.95 ERA and a 4-8 record. He is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing around 3.0 earned runs. Despite his below-average strikeout rate, he’ll need to navigate a potent Diamondbacks lineup effectively to keep the game competitive.

The game total is set high at 9.5 runs, reflecting expectations for an offensive showdown, with the Diamondbacks carrying a high implied team total of 5.02 runs against the Royals’ 4.48. The betting markets see this as a close contest, but the Diamondbacks’ superior offensive stats may give them the edge they need to secure the win.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kansas City Royals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  Michael Lorenzen is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #29 HR venue in the majors in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Bobby Witt Jr. is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#1-best of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Kansas City Royals with a 20.5% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Anthony DeSclafani – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Anthony DeSclafani in the 19th percentile when estimating his strikeout ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Alek Thomas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Alek Thomas has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 7.6% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen projects as the 9th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 70 games (+13.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 77 games (+29.90 Units / 33% ROI)
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+8.50 Units / 64% ROI)