Milwaukee Brewers
Miami Marlins
(-110/-110)-110
As the Miami Marlins and Milwaukee Brewers prepare for their matchup on July 6, 2025, the stakes are high in this National League series. The Marlins, currently sitting at 40-47, are looking to build on a recent victory over the Brewers, where they triumphed 4-2 in the previous game. Conversely, the Brewers, at 49-40, are having a solid season but will aim to bounce back after that loss.
The pitching matchup features Edward Cabrera for the Marlins against Brandon Woodruff of the Brewers. Cabrera, ranked 97th among MLB starting pitchers, has had an inconsistent season but recently showcased his potential with an impressive performance, going 7 innings with no earned runs in his last start on July 1. However, his peripherals suggest he might be due for some regression, as his 3.92 SIERA indicates he has been somewhat fortunate this year. Cabrera also struggles with walks, which could be a concern against a patient Brewers lineup that ranks 6th in walks this season.
On the other side, Woodruff, sitting at 52nd in Power Rankings, has been a reliable presence for Milwaukee but has also shown vulnerability, allowing 4 earned runs in his last outing. Both pitchers project to allow around 2 earned runs, but Cabrera’s high walk rate could give the Brewers an opportunity to capitalize.
Offensively, the Marlins rank 9th in team batting average but struggle with power, sitting 26th in home runs. The Brewers also find themselves in a similar boat, ranking 22nd in home runs while being more effective on the basepaths, ranking 3rd in stolen bases.
With a Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, oddsmakers suggest a tightly contested game. Both teams have low implied team totals of 3.75 runs, indicating a possible battle of the bullpens later in the game, where the Brewers hold a slight edge with a 16th-ranked bullpen compared to Miami’s 22nd. This matchup could prove pivotal for both teams, especially the Marlins as they seek to gain momentum in a challenging season.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Brandon Woodruff – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)With 6 bats who share his hand in the opposing team’s projected offense, Brandon Woodruff figures to benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Jake Bauers has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 15.7% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- The 6.3% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers makes them the #30 squad in Major League Baseball this year by this stat.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Edward Cabrera’s 95.8-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 91st percentile out of all starters.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)Kyle Stowers has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.7-mph to 98.6-mph in the last two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Dane Myers hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Miami Marlins – Run Line +1.5 (-185)The Miami Marlins have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 51 games (+13.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-110)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 85 games (+9.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)Jesus Sanchez has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 91% ROI)