Game Recap for Tigers vs Guardians – Sunday, July 6th, 2025

Detroit Tigers

@

Cleveland Guardians

As the calendar flips to July, the Cleveland Guardians find themselves in a challenging spot at 40-47, sitting well behind in the American League Central. They’ll host the Detroit Tigers, who are enjoying a much more successful campaign at 56-34. Notably, in their last matchup on July 5, the Tigers came away with a narrow win, adding to their series lead.

For this third game of the series, Cleveland is set to send right-hander Gavin Williams to the mound. While his 5-4 record and 3.86 ERA are respectable, Williams is ranked 111th among starting pitchers, indicating he’s been more lucky than effective this season, as suggested by his 4.39 xFIP. He’s projected to pitch around 5.2 innings today, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs and striking out approximately 5.4 batters.

On the other side, the Tigers will counter with the elite left-handed pitcher Tarik Skubal, currently ranked 1st among MLB starters. Skubal boasts a stellar 2.15 ERA and a 10-2 record. He’s projected to go slightly deeper into the game, averaging 5.9 innings, allowing only 2.0 earned runs while striking out 6.4 batters. Despite a terrible projection for hits allowed, Skubal’s dominance should pose a significant challenge for a Guardians offense that ranks 27th in MLB.

Cleveland’s best hitter has shown some promise lately, recording 7 hits and 1 home run over the last week. However, the team’s overall offensive struggles contrast starkly with the Tigers, whose bats rank 5th in MLB. According to projections, Cleveland’s team total is a mere 3.10 runs, while Detroit’s is considerably higher at 4.40 runs, indicating heavy betting interest in the Tigers as they look to extend their lead in the series.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Recording 19.2 outs per game per started this year on average, Tarik Skubal places in the 99th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Matt Vierling – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Matt Vierling is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Parker Meadows hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Gavin Williams’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (57.4% vs. 48.6% last season) should work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Angel Martinez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Angel Martinez’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 86.7-mph seasonal average has lowered to 83.7-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Projected catcher Austin Hedges grades out as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 83 games (+13.74 Units / 14% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-220)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 78 games (+11.15 Units / 9% ROI)
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+9.15 Units / 24% ROI)